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* U.S. unemployment rate steady though employers shed jobs

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Our Forex Monthly Technical and Fundamental Outlook report examines long-term forecasts for major currencies, as we explore key themes ranging from chart patterns to forex sentiment and positioning data.

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USDCHF – Our contrarian positioning indicator accurately forecast that the US Dollar would rally against the Swiss franc through recent trade, and our SSI-based forex trading signals on DailyFX+ actually bought the USDCHF at 1.0887, 1.1016, and 1.1038. We see that the SSI continues to forecast USDCHF rallies, as the ratio of long to short positions in the pair currently stands at -1.64; 62 …

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EURUSD – Our forex positioning indicator accurately forecast that the Euro would fall against the US dollar, as increasingly net-long positions in the EURUSD gave contrarian signal to sell the currency pair.

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EURUSD - Forex Trading Indicator Accurately Forecasts Euro Declines USDJPY - Japanese Yen Likely to Gain as Currency Trading Crowds Buy USDJPY USDCHF - Forex Trading Signals Buy the USDCHF on SSI-based Forecasts GBPUSD - Traders Indecisively Buy the US Dollar Against the British Pound USDCAD - Canadian Dollar Forecast to Turn Against US Dollar

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Forex trading market seasonality is an effect widely studied as a primary mover of major currency pairs, as long-term studies suggest that certain seasonal patterns may be able to predict forex price moves.

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The Japanese Yen is one of the most historically seasonal currencies in the forex universe, but we see relatively little in the way of seasonal trends for the month of October. Instead, we will watch technical forecasts for the USDJPY to predict medium-term direction for the pair.

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The New Zealand dollar has rallied in seven consecutive months of October, showing fairly strong forex seasonality through that stretch. Of course it serves to note that it has likewise been in a fairly clear uptrend through that stretch, and the pattern may largely be a function of ongoing trends and not true seasonality.

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The Canadian dollar shows an unclear forex seasonality trend, but we do nonetheless note that the USDCAD has actually fallen sharply in 4 of the last 6 months of October. According to our technical outlook, a failure near current resistance levels would point to further USDCAD declines.

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There is no clear forex seasonal trend in the Swiss Franc through the month of October, as the USDCHF has on balance remained unchanged through the month for the past 9 years. Our forex technical forecast favors USDCHF declines.

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